Time for my fourth installment of Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment! I am sure ya'll are just on the edge of your seats to find out just what has transpired in the world of short sales in our Sacramento metro area since the last time? I have deliberately allowed more time to pass between Part III and Part IV, so that we can see if a trend has truly emerged. For those of you not following along at home, or perhaps if you are reading this for the first time, my short sale experiment is tracking a few different Sacramento zip codes to see what how the short sale activity increases or decreases over time as compared with traditional resale listings (where there is a seller with equity in a "normal transaction") and to bank-owned resale transactions. My hypothesis at the start of this experiment: the number of short sales will grow over time, as will their dominance in our greater Sacramento marketplace (overall percentage of listings). I have continued to list more short sale properties. Let's see how this new data compares to the "control data" for the experiment and also to last month...
95624 is the section of Elk Grove closest to Hwy 99. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 332 active listings there. 227/332 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in October 2009 was $230,000 according to Trendgraphix (an decrease over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 68.6% of all active listings in 95624 were short sales, vs. 72.5% last installment, vs. 68.3% this month. BIG DECREASE over the control data, but a more significant decrease over last installment. Number of YTD closed short sales - 203.
95610 is a section of Citrus Heights. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 156 active listings there. 105/156 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in October 2009 was $215,000 according to Trendgraphix (a significant increase over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 60.3% of all active listings in 95610 were short sales, vs. 68.5% last installment, vs. 67.3% this month. BIG INCREASE over the control data, and a slight decrease over last installment. Number of YTD closed short sales - 76.
95826 is a section of Rosemont and College Greens. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 124 active listings there. 92/124 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in October 2009 was also $190,000 according to Trendgraphix (an increase from last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 62.2% of all active listings in 95826 were short sales, vs. 63.3% last installment, vs. 74.1% this month = BIG INCREASE. Number of YTD closed short sales - 52.
95864 is a section of Sierra Oaks, Arden Park, and Arden Manor. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 151 active listings there. 39/151 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in October 2009 was $260,000 according to Trendgraphix (a decrease over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 17.0% of all active listings in 95864 were short sales, vs. 21.6% last installment, vs. 25.8% this month. BIG INCREASE. Number of YTD closed short sales - 16.
95818 is a section of Midtown, Land Park, and Curtis Park. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 60 active listings there. 15/60 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in Octobet 2009 was $352,000 according to Trendgraphix (slight decrease over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 16.0% of all active listings in 95818 were short sales, vs. 21.7% last installment, vs. 25.0% this month. BIG INCREASE. Number of YTD closed short sales - 14.
95819 is a section of East Sacramento. As of right this second according to MLS, there are a total of 62 active listings there. 14/62 listings are short sales. The median price in that zip code in October 2009 was $348,000 according to Trendgraphix (a decrease over last installment). The result vs. the control data? Control data was 19.7% of all active listings in 95819 were short sales, vs. 13.9% last month, vs. 22.6 this month. BIG INCREASE. Number of YTD closed short sales - 9.
So in summary - of the six Sacramento area zip codes I am tracking for my experiment, 5 of them experienced an increase in the number of active short sale listings...the majority of the zip codes posted pretty large proportional increases, and the one decreasing zip code I am tracking posted a pretty large proportional decrease. My phone definitely keeps ringing and I continue to receive emails - I am fielding lots of inquiries from homeowners looking for more information and insight from my short sale experience...buyers too are really curious about the short sale process since they are encountering so many short sale listings in our marketplace. Also (you will be aware of this if you follow me on Twitter or Facebook), I closed many of my own short sale listings since the last installment of Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment...and I have one Natomas short sale closing tomorrow. Until next time!
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part I
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part II
Erin's Sacramento Short Sale Experiment, Part III
The Sacramento Short Sale Experiment - Part IV...the numbers don't lie!
3 comments • Erin Attardi, Realtor - Sacramento, CA 916-342-1372 • November 19 2009 07:59PMComments
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Erin, I have been tracking the short sales in various neighborhoods in our area and have seen a slight decline in the neighborhood I live in, and an increase in some of the others. They are very interesting stats to use when talking with prospective sellers especially. Very informative post.
Erin,
Wonderful work on your series!
On to your report. Your figures confirm my feelings on our market as well. Elk Grove, as we both now, was among the first of our communities to feel the distress - Along with Natomas and West Sacramento. The homes and loans are newer, higher loan to value ratios, etc.. I am glad to hear the volume is tempering, but I suspect that when this period is all said done, those neighborhoods I mentioned will show the largest, by percentage, of lost homes.
College Greens, Rosemont & Citrus Heights, A blend of long term established residents and older homes. The true suburbs of Sacramento. And insulated at the beginning to the true effects of the downturn. Now being hit by job losses.
Arden, East Sacramento and Land Park, along with other high dollar areas have now been feeling the pinch. Not so much for difficult loans as lost jobs. These areas tend to be well estblished and financially stronger than the newer markets.
As with the nation, our neighborhoods did not fall in the same fashion or at the same pace. Let's hope the the change in the leading edge is the beginning of something good.
Erin,
Thank you for sharing the results of your experiment I look forward to part 5.
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